"Change of Ally: Hun Sen's Cambodia departures from Vietnam to China"

Does Cambodia really swing toward China and leave from its close ally, Vietnam?

Currently, Cambodian government seems to focus on the border issues with its neighboring country, Vietnam. It is, in fact, hardly raised to talk about this issue with the government of Cambodia. So far, when Cambodian people raised the concern on the issues, and talk about illegal Vietnamese immigrants in Cambodia, the government took it for granted. Moreover, some government officials came to oppose the civic views and claim that there are no Vietnamese immigrants staying in Cambodia.

According to this, the government of Cambodia was seen to be a pro-Vietnam the same as what people and the opposition party said.

Yet, the government of Cambodia is likely to change its behavior toward Vietnam. Remarkably, Cambodia has changed its behavior towards Vietnam since the 1997 coup. Cambodia has shifted more cordially with China under Hun Sen leadership, for Cambodia need to develop its economics. Nevertheless, Cambodian People’s Party cannot forget what Vietnam has helped them to come into power by installing the new government after the collapse of DK. Many top ranking officials of Cambodian government are greatly influenced by Vietnam. Therefore, the government of Cambodia, under the leadership of CPP, has to pay gratefulness for Vietnamese government.

Anyway, after the 2013 national election, when CPP dropped many seats in the national assembly, and the opposition party, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) gained the seats in the national assembly, thing has changed. Gradually, it is noticed that Hun Sen seems to swing towards China from Vietnam. For instance, the tension has risen very sharply between Cambodia and Vietnam on the border issues. So far, Cambodian government, through deputy prime minister, the minister of foreign affairs, H.E. Hor Namhong, has sent ten diplomatic notes to Vietnamese embassy in Phnom Penh to take legal action. Moreover, Prime Minister Hun Sen has, recently, admitted that the tension on the border disputes between Cambodia and Vietnam is hardly revolved, and in his speech, he clarified that he strongly supports any means on the territorial integrity.  

Ideally, H.E. Hor Namhong has claimed that if the government of Vietnam still ignores the diplomatic notes from Cambodian side, Cambodia will issue the complaint to the international court of justice (ICJ). Simultaneously, when the government of Cambodia has clarified that Cambodia try its best to solve the problem with Vietnam by peaceful means on the current issues, the opposition leader, Sam Rainsy also claimed that he supports strongly on the stance of the government to solve the border issues. Recently, many illegal Vietnamese immigrants have been arrested and sent back to their home country.

As can be seen, it is a signal for Hun Sen to depart from its close ally, Hanoi government.

Sensitively, after the death of Chea Sim, the committee of communist party of Vietnam came to Cambodia to have an immediate meeting with CPP officials and tell the government of Cambodia to take care of Vietnamese people, living in Cambodia.

Strategically, Hun Sen does not want to be under the Vietnamese power anymore. He wants to balance with Vietnam that is why he seems to make close relationship with China. For example, during the 2012 ASEAN Summit, when Cambodia was a chair, Cambodia did not raise the south China-sea dispute to talk in the agenda, and the Philippines government was very angry with Cambodia and almost closed the diplomatic relations with Cambodia.

Moreover, since the CPP has lost many seats to CNRP, the government of Cambodia ruled by Hun Sen probably admits that because of their ignorance on the people’s voice. People want the rule of law, freedom of expression, justice and generally speaking people need a real democracy to be implemented in Cambodia. Moreover, people want the immigrant law to be applied, especially concern on Vietnamese immigrants.

Therefore, it can be CPP’s strategy to raise the border issues with Vietnam, and arrested some many illegal Vietnamese immigrants to send back to their country in order to charm the people and restore its fame to prepare for the next national election mandate in 2018.  

Is Cambodia really allying with China to counter Vietnam?

Obviously, Cambodia will ally with China if Vietnam attacks Cambodia. But the current situation, Cambodia should try its best to resolve the issues with Vietnam by peaceful means. For the time being, Cambodia should use the peaceful settlement of the border disputes with Vietnam as the following: negotiations, good offices, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration and adjudication. If it is still unresolved, then the international court of justice (ICJ) is needed.

Cambodia cannot use military force to fight war with Vietnam. In fact, the Cambodian military capabilities are far weaker than Vietnamese’s. Therefore, Cambodia can choose to join with the other countries to balance with Vietnam, especially China. However, if Cambodia joins the alliance with China, it will impact the relationships within the region in ASEAN.  Moreover, it is shown no unity within the ASEAN members.

Remarkably, Vietnam can attack Cambodia any time they want, but Vietnam will not do that. If Vietnam really does, it will be condemned by the international community. Furthermore, international community will impose sanction on Vietnam. Hence, Vietnam probably uses force just to threaten Cambodia. Vietnam will try to do everything to press Cambodia to agree with their needs. In an essence, Vietnam does not need the third party to intervene in this issue because Vietnam is stronger than Cambodia. Hence, bilateral negotiation is, indeed, required by Vietnamese side. In this situation, Vietnam can put pressure on Cambodia to agree with them.

However, Cambodia now is not like Cambodia in the 1980s, which was installed by Vietnam and had to follow Vietnam. According to Ba Hung, he stated that “it is difficult to get Cambodia to cooperate with us because they listen to someone else (China)” (Wikileaks). So, now we can see that Cambodia does not listen to Vietnam, but China because Vietnam does not have leverage on Cambodia anymore. Thus, if Vietnam heavily encroach Cambodia, Phnom Penh government will totally depart from Vietnam and swing toward China.

Besides, Hun Sen government needs reforming for the time being. Since the CPP has been considered as pro Vietnamese government, the people of Cambodia, gradually, stop trusting Hun Sen administration, and started to support the opposition party. For example, the result of the 2013 election has shown that the government has lost their popularity sharply whereas the opposition party increased the seats. So, in order to convince the people, CPP should change their policy. While people of Cambodia strongly oppose the illegal Vietnamese immigrants, the government can take this opportunity to show its nationalism to the people by investigating and arresting the illegal immigrants and send them back to their country.

More importantly, we can see that if CPP departs from Vietnam and swing towards China, CPP will gain two benefits, such as: 1. CPP can gain its popularity for the next election in 2018, and 2. the government of Cambodia under CPP leadership can increase the economic development.

However, if CPP still have close ally with Vietnam, the people of Cambodia will lose faith with CPP and shift to support the opposition party. Necessarily, Vietnam will help nothing to develop the economics in Cambodia, but China will.

Hence, although it is a hard choice for CPP to decide its foreign policy, CPP will, obviously, choose to ally with China rather than Vietnam.

In brief, Cambodia under CPP’s administration is showing its signal to depart from Vietnam (its close ally) to China base on the reasons, mentioned above. Although Cambodia does not completely reveal that it is swinging towards China, but its action has been, gradually, disclosed.

However, international politics can dramatically change. It is dependent upon the real situation, happening out there, so the foreign policy makers are very flexible to make the decision. They not only focus on the international politics, but also domestic politics in order to gain the interests. 

About the author: 

Thoeun Vongdy has been currently working in Japan International Cooperation Agency in Social Development & Governance Sections. He also serves as a lecturer in various universities in the Discipline of International Relations, Educational Psychology, Global Studies, etc. He also used to work for the foreign mission including Embassy of India in Cambodia. He obtained Master Degree of Politics, Specialization in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), India. He has been pursuing Ph.D. of International Relations at University of Cambodia (UC). His interest papers in world politics, India-Cambodia, China-Cambodia as well security issues in world affairs.